Australian migration has recently been extremely volatile. Net overseas migration fell into negative numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic. When borders reopened, it surged primarily in response to pent-up demand. From 2024, it fell again and is now in steep decline. This pattern has occurred only once before in Australia: during and after World War I. The paper calls this distinct pattern the 'whipsaw effect'.

The recent peak of the whipsaw effect has stirred up long-running anti-immigrant feeling in Australia. Some of this has included elements of racism, both overt and subtle. But much of it comes from more practical concerns about the consequences of longer-term increases in migration.

Currently, there are two main criticisms of the Australian Government’s migration policies. One claims the current Government caused the recent post-pandemic swings. The other says the swing is evidence of the Labor Party’s supposed long-term preference for higher immigration. This paper reviews the evidence and draws conclusions. It finds there there is no foundation to claims that Labor has followed a policy of “Big Australia”.

Key findings

• The post-pandemic surge in net overseas migration was driven by global forces more than local ones.
• The COVID-19 shock created a whipsaw effect in migration across all rich countries, not just Australia.
• To the extent that specific Australian policies played a role, these policies were shaped by both the Coalition and Labor.
• The Coalition has generally expanded temporary migration.
• Labor has often tightened immigration policy in relation to temporary migration.
• Coalition governments have driven most of the long-term expansion in temporary migration, while Labor has more often acted to restrict or regulate flows.