Migration is a timeless pattern but a complex topic for public debate, in part because the technical terms used by demographers are poorly understood. ‘Immigration’ refers to migrant arrivals from abroad, ‘emigration’ to migrant departures, and ‘migration’ encompasses both. Net Overseas Migration (NOM) – the difference between arrivals and departures – is more abstract, but alongside natural increase (births minus deaths) it is a core driver of population change.

This paper argues that the recent surge and subsequent fall in NOM in Australia are best understood as the delayed adjustment of a demand driven migration system after an unprecedented global shock.

The paper explains why NOM is inherently volatile and difficult to predict, why Treasury projections should be understood as forecasts rather than policy targets, and why simple extrapolations from pre-COVID trends are particularly misleading following major shocks. The analysis concludes by identifying the practical limits governments face in managing migration departures and drawing out the implications for the likely trajectory of NOM in the years ahead.

Key findings

• Australia’s post-COVID migration surge and subsequent decline reflect delayed system adjustment after a global shock, not a loss of policy control or uniquely Australian policy failure. 
• NOM is inherently volatile because it is a residual of arrivals and departures, many of which governments in liberal democracies cannot directly or rapidly control. 
• Recent NOM volatility was driven primarily by temporary migration dynamics, especially international students, graduates and Working Holiday makers, alongside COVID-era visa extensions that delayed departures. 
• Looking ahead, NOM is likely to continue declining as departures rise, but the structure of the migration system means adjustment may be gradual and incomplete rather than rapid or linear.