An analysis of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has slightly fallen, but not by enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.

Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C. Reductions to annual emissions of 35% and 55%, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade.  

The report finds that this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise climate risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 within the realms of possibility – although doing so will be extremely challenging. 

Key findings

• The new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have slightly lowered global warming projections, but not by enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages – with many nations not submitting new pledges.
• Alignment with 1.5°C and 2°C goals would require rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions far above what has been pledged.
• While the task ahead is huge, progress made during ten years of the Paris Agreement shows that drastically cutting emissions is both possible and desirable.
• G20 action and leadership, particularly by the biggest economies and emitters, will be pivotal.