Rarely, if ever, has an Australian Prime Minister relied on statistical modelling as heavily as Scott Morrison. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the assumption and less commonly reported, but important, results of the recent Doherty Institute modelling.

This report argues that the effectiveness of test, trace, isolate, quarantine (TTIQ) is likely to be dependent upon case numbers, but current modelling does not take this into account. As cases rise to unplanned levels, current TTIQ assumptions undermine Doherty modelling of Phase 2.

The 2021 Intergenerational report contained many references to GDP, but barely mentioned wealth or capital gains. This paper begins to redress that omission by including wealth and capital gains in the discussion of trends likely to persist in Australia over the next 40 years.

Consultations are beginning around the future of social security payments in remote Australia. This discussion paper assesses what has gone wrong with the existing Community Development Program, and argues that Australia needs to consider a more effective, caring and creative approach to supporting the health, wellbeing and economic aspirations of Indigenous peoples in remote areas.

Beyond the comparison with other countries, this paper indicates that Australia’s so-called ‘gas-fired economic recovery’ runs absolutely counter to the needs of Australia’s energy system transition, and would worsen, not improve, Australia’s emissions reduction performance.